The question is not will the iPad do everything you or I wish it to, clearly Apple did not intend it to be the One Device to Rule Them All. Apple's intent has been clear for several years. Jobs stated the intent in a speech 9 years ago: The digital hub strategy.
"The Mac," Jobs said, "can become the 'digital hub' of our emerging digital lifestyle, adding tremendous value to our other digital devices."
"Jobs laid out a path of PC evolution that defined the early 80s as an initial 'golden age' of computing based on productivity software, which began to wane in the early 90s. A 'second golden age' began in the mid-1990s with the rise of Internet; but it too began to lose its momentum by 2000. Jobs said he believed a third age would focus on a digital lifestyle, driven by an 'explosion of digital devices.'"
-- by Phil Simon The Age of the Platform
Steve Jobs introduces the "Digital Hub... by HiltonRobb
Simon writes "Apple forced this third golden age by developing its platform -- and making it so compelling to use."
To see the ecosystem of the computer as a hub of your digital life. They have executed on that vision with the iPod, then the iTunes store, the iPhone and the App store, now the iPad and the iBookStore. Are we following a pattern, is there a cookbook? The leader has a vision, shares the vision with the followers, the followers buy into the vision and together make it a reality.
The new product adoptions phases are progressing quite nicely. Apple is a master at this process, described by David Pogue in:
http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/27/the-apple-ipad-first-impressions/.
So we are clearly in Phase 2 (bashing). With rational reasons, but when Phase 3 (attainment) arrives - will you rationalize these arguments and purchase an iPad? I've got $5 on Yes, you buy. Actually a bit more than $5 as I purchased Apple shares just under $200 after the bounce and drop on the iPad news.
My reasons for the confidence in Apple: They have executed on Jobs vision, they are in iteration 3 of new products that connect to the computer hub. I have Pogue's model of phases of product adoption for an explanation of the media. I refer you to the long list of "desired" feature missing in the iPhone, and the large number of iPhone sells.
Apple has the magic balancing act of the perfect engineer - they are at the top of the game in the compromise to optimize simplicity thereby maximizing enjoyment of the product. They are not as concerned about shareholder value as they are customer satisfaction. They have a very good measure of customer satisfaction. I think they are getting the customer satisfaction equation optimized.
See comments section for continuing updates to this story line.
"The Mac," Jobs said, "can become the 'digital hub' of our emerging digital lifestyle, adding tremendous value to our other digital devices.""Jobs laid out a path of PC evolution that defined the early 80s as an initial 'golden age' of computing based on productivity software, which began to wane in the early 90s. A 'second golden age' began in the mid-1990s with the rise of Internet; but it too began to lose its momentum by 2000. Jobs said he believed a third age would focus on a digital lifestyle, driven by an 'explosion of digital devices.'"
-- by Phil Simon The Age of the Platform
Steve Jobs introduces the "Digital Hub... by HiltonRobb
Simon writes "Apple forced this third golden age by developing its platform -- and making it so compelling to use."
To see the ecosystem of the computer as a hub of your digital life. They have executed on that vision with the iPod, then the iTunes store, the iPhone and the App store, now the iPad and the iBookStore. Are we following a pattern, is there a cookbook? The leader has a vision, shares the vision with the followers, the followers buy into the vision and together make it a reality.
The new product adoptions phases are progressing quite nicely. Apple is a master at this process, described by David Pogue in:
http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/27/the-apple-ipad-first-impressions/.
Wildly Successful New Product Launch Phases
Phase 1 feverish speculation and hype (preannouncment)
Phase 2 disappointment and bashing (prerelease)
Phase 3 attainment anticipation and adoration (post release)
So we are clearly in Phase 2 (bashing). With rational reasons, but when Phase 3 (attainment) arrives - will you rationalize these arguments and purchase an iPad? I've got $5 on Yes, you buy. Actually a bit more than $5 as I purchased Apple shares just under $200 after the bounce and drop on the iPad news.
My reasons for the confidence in Apple: They have executed on Jobs vision, they are in iteration 3 of new products that connect to the computer hub. I have Pogue's model of phases of product adoption for an explanation of the media. I refer you to the long list of "desired" feature missing in the iPhone, and the large number of iPhone sells.
Apple has the magic balancing act of the perfect engineer - they are at the top of the game in the compromise to optimize simplicity thereby maximizing enjoyment of the product. They are not as concerned about shareholder value as they are customer satisfaction. They have a very good measure of customer satisfaction. I think they are getting the customer satisfaction equation optimized.
See comments section for continuing updates to this story line.
Comments
Martin notes two eras in business management, 1) managerial capitalism and 2) shareholder value capitalism, then argues for a third era.
"The second, shareholder value capitalism, began in 1976. Its governing premise is that the purpose of every corporation should be to maximize shareholders’ wealth. If firms pursue this goal, the thinking goes, both shareholders and society will benefit. This is a tragically flawed premise, and it is time we abandoned it and made the shift to a third era: customer-driven capitalism."
http://www.macworld.com/article/146012/2010/01/macalope_ipad.html?lsrc=rss_main
The iPad isn't a third device, but a third revolution
Posted on Feb 1, 2010 10:15 am by Dan Moren, Macworld.com
http://www.macworld.com/article/146040/2010/02/ipad.html?lsrc=rss_main
Seth's blog on the subject - he said no.
http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2010/02/who-will-save-us.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2Fsethsmainblog+%28Seth%27s+Blog%29
Well it appears that 13 million people bought an iPad in 2010, so the answer to the bashing question above is - Yes. Yes we will buy one, and the "Wildly Successful New Product Launch Phases" model predicted reality this time.
http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20101216/mac-app-store-goes-live-january-6/
http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2010/12/top-tech-2010/
"With more than 10 billion apps downloaded in just two and a half years -- a staggering seven billion apps in the last year alone -- the App Store has surpassed our wildest dreams," said Apple marketing vice president Philip Schiller. "The App Store has revolutionized how software is created, distributed, discovered and sold."